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hk-ipo/reports/2026-06-15_historical_data_audit.md
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geometrybase 33d0bc056e Tighten historical data audit coverage 
Request:
- Use the audit skill to check historical data completeness and self-correct the audit criteria after the missed PDF extracted-text gap.

Changes:
- Add a mandatory derived-evidence checklist to the audit skill.
- Require broad historical audits to reconcile PDF source_refs, extracted text files, manifest rows, and hashes.
- Add a historical data completeness audit report for the current archive.

Findings:
- Source integrity and PDF extracted-text completeness now pass.
- Full historical completeness still fails due to incomplete structured T1 demand, unresolved T2 grey-market data, open due price-performance tasks, and missing context fields.

Verification:
- Ran SQLite integrity, foreign-key, source hash, snapshot, PDF manifest, extracted-text hash, stage coverage, and analysis-dataset checks.
- Ran scripts/extract_pdf_text.py and confirmed 557 PDF sources were skipped unchanged with 557 manifest rows.
- Ran git diff --check.
2026-06-15 13:43:22 +00:00

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# Historical Data Completeness Audit
Audit date: 2026-06-15
Audit target: Full historical Hong Kong IPO archive in `data/hk_ipo.sqlite`
Stage scope: T0, T1, T2, D1, D5, D20, D60, source integrity, PDF extracted text, and analysis-dataset readiness
Audit status: fail for full historical completeness; pass for source integrity and PDF-derived evidence completeness
## Summary
The archive is internally consistent at the raw-source and snapshot level, and the previous PDF extracted-text blind spot is now closed. The current archive is not yet complete enough to call the historical dataset fully analysis-ready across all intended stages.
Main blockers:
- T1 structured demand is incomplete: 137 tickers have allotment-results sources archived but no parsed `ipo_demand` row.
- T2 grey-market data remains unresolved: 291 listed tickers are blocked pending a reproducible source strategy.
- Due post-listing performance gaps remain: 18 D1, 18 D5, 18 D20, and 17 D60 tasks are open.
Major non-blocking gaps:
- Industry labels are mostly missing: 285 of 293 `ipo_master` rows are blank.
- Market-cap fields are mostly missing: 285 of 293 `offering_terms` rows are blank.
- Net proceeds are missing for 108 of 293 `offering_terms` rows.
## Data Integrity
Pass.
- SQLite `PRAGMA integrity_check`: `ok`.
- SQLite foreign-key check: 0 violations.
- DB row counts match CSV snapshots for `ipo_master`, `offering_terms`, `ipo_demand`, `price_performance`, `new_listing_report_entries`, `source_refs`, `data_gaps`, `sync_runs`, `ticker_sync_state`, and `sync_tasks`.
- `source_refs`: 1,149 rows.
- Source path and file checks: 0 bad paths, 0 missing files, 0 null hashes, 0 hash mismatches.
- Source file extensions: 557 `.pdf`, 29 `.htm`, 273 `.json`, 290 `.xlsx`.
## PDF Derived Evidence
Pass.
- PDF `source_refs`: 557.
- Extracted-text manifest rows: 557.
- Manifest status counts: 557 `ok`.
- Duplicate manifest source IDs: 0.
- Missing manifest rows for PDFs: 0.
- Orphan manifest rows: 0.
- Bad manifest PDF/text paths: 0.
- Missing extracted-text files: 0.
- PDF hash mismatches: 0.
- Text hash mismatches: 0.
- Zero or empty extractions: 0.
- Incremental extractor rerun result: 557 processed, 557 skipped unchanged, 557 manifest rows.
This check is now required in `.codex/skills/audit/SKILL.md` so future broad historical audits must reconcile PDF raw sources, extracted text, manifest rows, and hashes.
## Stage Completeness
IPO master sample:
- Total IPO rows: 293.
- Status counts: 291 listed, 1 open for subscription, 1 pending listing.
T0 prospectus:
- `T0_prospectus`: 293 complete.
- Offering terms rows: 293.
- No IPO is missing an `offering_terms` row.
- Offer price is present for all 293 rows.
T1 allotment:
- `T1_allotment`: 291 complete, 2 pending not due.
- Pending-not-due tickers: `06106` due 2026-06-23, `06675` due 2026-06-16.
- Allotment result sources: 291 total, including 262 PDF and 29 HTM sources.
- `ipo_demand`: 154 rows across 154 tickers.
- T1 complete but no structured demand row: 137 tickers.
- Source-only T1 gaps by source format: 108 PDF, 29 HTM.
- Demand rows with missing fields: public oversubscription 10, valid applications 6, successful applications 7, international oversubscription 1.
T2 grey market:
- `T2_grey_market`: 291 blocked, 2 pending not due.
- `data_gaps`: 291 grey-market gaps.
- This remains a blocking completeness issue unless T2 is explicitly excluded from a model or analysis stage.
Post-listing performance:
- D1: 273 complete, 18 pending due, 2 pending not due.
- D5: 272 complete, 18 pending due, 3 pending not due.
- D20: 267 complete, 18 pending due, 8 pending not due.
- D60: 251 complete, 17 pending due, 25 pending not due.
- Existing `price_performance` rows have 0 missing core price fields.
## Field Sufficiency
Major gaps remain for richer qualitative and valuation analysis:
- `ipo_master.industry_label` missing: 285 of 293.
- `ipo_master.application_start_date` missing: 45 of 293.
- `ipo_master.application_end_date` missing: 1 of 293.
- `ipo_master.allotment_results_expected_date` missing: 31 of 293.
- `offering_terms.board_lot` missing: 18 of 293.
- `offering_terms.min_subscription_amount_hkd` missing: 19 of 293.
- `offering_terms.global_offer_shares` missing: 11 of 293.
- `offering_terms.hk_offer_shares_initial` missing: 17 of 293.
- `offering_terms.international_offer_shares_initial` missing: 33 of 293.
- `offering_terms.public_offer_pct_initial` missing: 23 of 293.
- `offering_terms.market_cap_hkd_m` missing: 285 of 293.
- `offering_terms.net_proceeds_hkd_m` missing: 108 of 293.
- `offering_terms.issued_shares_upon_listing` missing: 45 of 293.
## Analysis Dataset Readiness
The v0 analysis dataset is structurally usable but not fully sufficient for T1/T2-aware feedback.
- Dataset rows: 293.
- Missing `total_score`: 0.
- Missing prospectus source path: 0.
- Missing allotment source path: 2, matching the two pending-not-due T1 tickers.
- `has_structured_t1`: 154 yes, 139 no.
- Blank `t1_add_score`: 139.
- Blank `total_score_bucket`: 139.
- Missing D1 return: 20.
- Missing industry label: 285.
- Missing market cap: 285.
Decision bands are populated for all rows, but many rows are effectively T0-only or T0-plus-partial-context because structured T1, T2, industry, and valuation fields are incomplete.
## Required Fixes
1. Route to `archivist`: use extracted PDF text and HTM raw notices to parse missing T1 demand facts for the 137 source-only allotment rows.
2. Route to `archivist`: decide and document a reproducible T2 grey-market source strategy, or formally exclude T2 from the v0 model scope.
3. Route to `archivist`: retry or source the open due D1/D5/D20/D60 price-performance tasks.
4. Route to `archivist`: backfill industry labels, market cap, net proceeds, issued shares, and missing offering-term fields.
5. Re-run `analyst` only after the relevant archive gaps are closed or explicitly marked out of scope for the model version being evaluated.
## Audit Skill Self-Correction
The prior audit skill failed to make derived evidence a mandatory check, which allowed archived PDFs without extracted text to pass unnoticed. The skill now requires broad historical audits to reconcile:
- PDF `source_refs`
- `data/snapshots/extracted_text_manifest.csv`
- `data/extracted_text/` files
- PDF hashes
- extracted text hashes
Missing derived text or manifest mismatches are now blocker issues for historical-data completeness.
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