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hk-ipo/rules/rule_change_log.md
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geometrybase 48b89552fe Add IPO analysis model baseline
Request:
- Use the analyst skill to digest downloaded IPO archive data and start building an analysis model.

Changes:
- Add ipo_score_v0 as the first transparent stage-safe scoring rule set.
- Add build_analysis_dataset.py to derive model features, scores, decision bands, and empirical D1 calibration from SQLite.
- Generate analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv with 293 scored IPO rows and archived source paths.
- Add a model calibration report documenting coverage, T0/T1 bucket performance, usage, and known gaps.
- Record the initial model entry in the rule change log and document the command in README.

Verification:
- Ran py_compile for scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py.
- Regenerated the analysis dataset and report with as-of 2026-06-15T13:00:00Z.
- Checked CSV row count, source path coverage, and repo-relative path hygiene.
- Ran git diff --cached --check.

Next useful context:
- v0 should be treated as a transparent baseline, with T1 high-score calibration strongest and middle buckets still non-monotonic.
- T2 is excluded until a reliable grey-market source is approved.
2026-06-15 12:49:48 +00:00

1.0 KiB

Rule Change Log

2026-06-15 - Introduce ipo_score_v0

Request:

  • Start digesting the downloaded IPO archive and build the first analyst model.

Change:

  • Added rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml as the initial transparent scoring baseline.
  • Added scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py to generate a feature dataset and calibration report from data/hk_ipo.sqlite.
  • Added data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv as the first model-ready snapshot.
  • Added reports/2026-06-15_analysis_model_v0.md to document coverage, calibration, and known gaps.

Rationale:

  • The archive now has enough T0 facts and D1/D5/D20/D60 labels to support a repeatable baseline.
  • T1 demand data is partially structured and highly informative where available.
  • T2 grey-market data remains blocked until a reliable source exists, so it is excluded from v0.

Verification:

  • Generated the dataset from the current SQLite archive.
  • Confirmed the model keeps post-listing returns as labels only.
  • Recorded non-monotonic middle buckets as a limitation rather than overfitting them away.