HK IPO

HK IPO is a project for building a repeatable, auditable research workflow for Hong Kong new listing subscription decisions.

The project is designed around a feedback loop:

1. Archive IPO facts and source documents.
2. Freeze the analysis that was possible at each decision stage.
3. Compare predictions with post-listing outcomes.
4. Improve the scoring rules only from reviewed evidence.

Goals

• Maintain a local, Git-tracked history of Hong Kong IPO data.
• Separate factual archiving from investment judgment.
• Keep every subscription decision tied to the information available at that time.
• Review actual IPO outcomes against prior predictions.
• Build a better IPO scoring process through structured error attribution.

Workflow

Each IPO is evaluated by stage:

• T0_prospectus: prospectus and offer terms only.
• T1_allotment: allotment results, public subscription, placing, allocation, and final pricing.
• T2_grey_market: grey-market result and immediate pre-listing context.
• D1, D5, D20, D60: post-listing review checkpoints.

The key discipline is to avoid hindsight leakage. A T0 prediction should only use T0 information, even after the IPO has listed.

Project Skills

This repository includes project-local Codex skills under .codex/skills/.

archivist

Owns facts and source control:

• archive prospectuses, allotment results, listing facts, and market data;
• record source URLs, as-of timestamps, repo-relative paths, and file hashes;
• update the embedded SQLite database;
• export Git-friendly CSV snapshots.

It does not make investment recommendations.

analyst

Owns IPO judgment and review:

• produce T0/T1/T2 prediction cards;
• score IPO candidates;
• compare multiple IPOs;
• write research memos and review cards;
• classify forecast errors;
• recommend scoring-rule updates.

It should use archived facts when available and keep prediction cards append-only.

Storage Model

The project is intended to be self-contained and portable across machines. Durable paths should always be relative to the repository root.

Expected layout:

data/
  hk_ipo.sqlite
  raw/
  snapshots/
memos/
reports/
rules/
schema/
scripts/
references/

Path rules:

• store paths like data/raw/06658/prospectus.pdf;
• do not store absolute paths;
• do not store paths with a leading ./;
• use POSIX / separators;
• store file hashes for archived source documents when practical.

SQLite is the embedded source of structured facts. CSV snapshots provide readable Git diffs. Markdown memos preserve the reasoning at each decision point.

Git Discipline

The repository uses automatic focused commits for completed project changes. Push only when explicitly requested.

Before committing, check that unrelated dirty files are not included and that generated durable files use repo-relative paths.