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Author SHA1 Message Date
geometrybase 9e51fa87cf Refresh latest HK IPO candidate report
Request:
- Run the scheduled hk-ipo-analyst refresh as of 2026-06-22T23:00:18Z.
- Refresh the IPO candidate universe and latest online facts through the archivist before analysis.
- Rebuild the analysis dataset and publish the latest broad candidate report in Simplified Chinese.

Changes:
- Re-archived the HKEX current new-listing page at the requested as-of time and refreshed sync state.
- Archived a fresh VBKR/Jieli T0.95 market-heat snapshot for the 13 actionable candidates while keeping unofficial heat in ipo_market_heat.
- Refreshed ipohk external history, reran official HKEX document/T1 demand and price-performance refreshes, and rebuilt analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv.
- Rewrote reports/2026-06-22_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md for the 23:00Z snapshot and mirrored it to reports/README.md.

Verification:
- Ran archive_hkex_current_new_listings.py, archive_hkex_documents.py, backfill_t1_demand_from_text.py, archive_t0_5_market_heat.py, archive_price_performance.py, archive_ipohk_history.py, and build_analysis_dataset.py with as-of 2026-06-22T23:00:18Z.
- Confirmed reports/README.md matches the dated report with cmp.
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Checked source_refs paths are repo-relative, existing, and hash-matching.
- Checked the latest 13 T0.95 live heat rows remain separate from official T1 demand rows.

Next useful context:
- The 23:00Z VBKR/Jieli heat values matched the prior 15:47Z values for the 13 active candidates.
- No new official T1 rows were available for 06106 or 02335 as of 2026-06-22T23:00:18Z; keep them as T1 data_gap names.
- Yahoo price refresh wrote no new internal D1 rows; 00901 remains an internal D1 data_gap.
2026-06-22 23:06:00 +00:00
geometrybase dc09888c49 Refresh latest HK IPO candidate report
Request:
- Run the scheduled hk-ipo-analyst refresh as of 2026-06-22T15:47:32Z.
- Refresh the IPO candidate universe and network facts through the archivist before analysis.
- Rebuild the analysis dataset and publish the latest broad candidate report in Simplified Chinese.

Changes:
- Archived the HKEX current new-listing page, new official allotment-result PDFs for 06067 and 06132, extracted text, a fresh VBKR/Jieli T0.95 market-heat snapshot, ipohk external history, and recent Yahoo price-performance responses.
- Updated structured SQLite facts and CSV snapshots, including official T1 demand for 06067 and 06132 while keeping live subscription heat in ipo_market_heat.
- Rebuilt data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv after the archive refresh.
- Rewrote reports/2026-06-22_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md and mirrored the same content to reports/README.md.

Verification:
- Ran archive_hkex_current_new_listings.py, archive_hkex_documents.py, backfill_t1_demand_from_text.py, archive_t0_5_market_heat.py, archive_price_performance.py, archive_ipohk_history.py, and build_analysis_dataset.py with as-of 2026-06-22T15:47:32Z.
- Confirmed reports/README.md matches the dated report with cmp.
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Checked source_refs paths are repo-relative and existing.
- Checked the latest 13 T0.95 live heat rows remain separate from official T1 demand rows.

Next useful context:
- 06067 and 06132 now have official T1 demand in the archive; 06106 and 02335 remain T1 data_gap names as of this run.
- The 15:47Z VBKR/Jieli live heat values matched the earlier 13:57Z values for active candidates.
- Price refresh still has provider gaps for some historical tickers, including internal D1 price data for 00901.
2026-06-22 15:54:40 +00:00
geometrybase 44e1c70339 Reorder IPO candidate report for action-first reading
Request:
- Put the actionable scoring/ranking first in the latest IPO candidate report.
- Then show fundamentals, break-risk/risk-reward, per-IPO notes, and finally the 30-day listed IPO review.
- Solidify this report order in the analyst skill.

Changes:
- Moved the current candidate ranking table to the first body section of the June 22 report.
- Moved the 30-day IPO review after per-IPO notes and waiting names.
- Added a Broad Candidate Report Layout section to the analyst skill so future broad candidate reports follow the same action-first order.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check.
- Confirmed report heading order with rg: ranking, fundamentals, break-risk, per-IPO notes, waiting names, 30-day review, guardrails, sources.
2026-06-22 14:23:08 +00:00
geometrybase 45ac12750c Add recent IPO listing review overlay
Request:
- Add a recent one-month listed IPO review to the latest candidate report.
- Make this review a standing analyst skill requirement for future broad IPO candidate reports.

Changes:
- Added a 2026-05-22 to 2026-06-22 IPO review table covering structure, fundamentals, T1 allotment demand, D1 performance, and PM lessons.
- Mapped recent T1/D1 outcomes back to the current candidate batch and flagged the 00901 D1 price data gap.
- Added a Recent Listing Review Overlay section to the project analyst skill.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check.
- Recomputed the recent review sample from analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv: 11 IPOs, 10 D1 observations, 9 nonnegative D1 returns, 1 negative D1 return, average D1 return 91.2%.
2026-06-22 14:17:45 +00:00
geometrybase 8ef1e78d58 Refresh IPO candidates with latest heat
Request:
- Update the current HK IPO candidates after subscription multiples changed again.
- Refresh the candidate ranking and defensive risk/reward view.

Changes:
- Archived the 2026-06-22T13:57:38Z VBKR/Jieli T0.95 market-heat snapshot.
- Re-archived the HKEX current new-listing page and rebuilt snapshots/model dataset.
- Updated the June 22 candidates report with the latest heat multiples, ranking, execution guidance, and defensive score table.
- Refreshed the model report analysis timestamp.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Confirmed SQLite PRAGMA integrity_check = ok.
- Parsed changed CSV snapshots and confirmed 13 latest T0_95_final_heat rows.
- Checked the current candidate ranking against data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv.
2026-06-22 14:02:46 +00:00
geometrybase 915dabaaa1 Add IPO break risk reward overlay
Request:
- Analyze the current HK IPO batch from break probability, capital efficiency, and risk/reward.
- Test whether names such as 01688 deserve a higher defensive ranking than their heat score implies.

Changes:
- Added rules/ipo_break_risk_reward_v0.yaml as an experimental defensive overlay.
- Split the new framework into break protection, capital efficiency, and upside optionality.
- Added historical break-rate calibration anchors from analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv.
- Updated the 2026-06-22 IPO report with a defensive risk/reward ranking and dual execution guidance.
- Logged the rule change and its caveats.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Parsed the new YAML file with PyYAML.
- Recomputed key historical break-rate anchors from the current model dataset.
2026-06-22 09:38:30 +00:00
geometrybase 4c9cf85f9e Add IPO fundamentals comparison
Request:
- Compare fundamentals for 01688 and 01956 against the current HK IPO candidate batch.
- Add the comparison to the 2026-06-22 IPO report.

Changes:
- Added a fundamentals section explaining 01688 as a mature cash-generative manufacturing platform.
- Added a fundamentals section explaining 01956 as a high-growth AI services IPO that remains loss-making.
- Added a 13-company comparison table and clarified how fundamentals should affect the heat-adjusted subscription ranking.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check for Markdown formatting and whitespace.
2026-06-22 09:28:17 +00:00
geometrybase e746cae035 Refresh HK IPO heat ranking
Request:
- Update the latest Hong Kong IPO candidate list and rescore it based on subscription multiples.

Changes:
- Archived the 2026-06-22 HKEX Main Board New Listing Information page, adding 02697, 03952, 06715, and 06915 to the current candidate set.
- Archived and extracted the four new prospectuses, refreshed current HKEX document facts, and rebuilt the v0 analysis dataset to 311 rows.
- Archived a 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z VBKR/Jieli market-heat snapshot and wrote only still-actionable T0.95 rows to avoid look-ahead leakage for already-closed IPOs.
- Improved prospectus date parsing for split weekday/month text, glued noon/commence phrases, and current new-listing expected listing-date updates.
- Added a Chinese 2026-06-22 latest IPO report ranking candidates after the subscription-multiple overlay.

Verification:
- Ran py_compile for archive_hkex_documents.py, archive_t0_5_market_heat.py, archive_hkex_current_new_listings.py, and build_analysis_dataset.py.
- Re-ran HKEX current-page seeding, document archiving, market-heat archiving, and analysis dataset build as of 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z.
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Ran SQLite integrity_check and foreign_key_check.
- Verified source_refs paths, file existence, and SHA-256 hashes.

Next useful context:
- 01956 is the only current candidate with both strong T0 structure and >100x actionable heat in this snapshot.
- Recheck 03952 and 06715 near the 2026-06-25 cutoff; their structure is strong but 2026-06-22 heat is below 10x.
- Official T1 allotment facts for 06067 and 06132 were still unavailable at this archive timestamp.
2026-06-22 09:03:50 +00:00