Add recent IPO listing review overlay
Request: - Add a recent one-month listed IPO review to the latest candidate report. - Make this review a standing analyst skill requirement for future broad IPO candidate reports. Changes: - Added a 2026-05-22 to 2026-06-22 IPO review table covering structure, fundamentals, T1 allotment demand, D1 performance, and PM lessons. - Mapped recent T1/D1 outcomes back to the current candidate batch and flagged the 00901 D1 price data gap. - Added a Recent Listing Review Overlay section to the project analyst skill. Verification: - Ran git diff --check. - Recomputed the recent review sample from analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv: 11 IPOs, 10 D1 observations, 9 nonnegative D1 returns, 1 negative D1 return, average D1 return 91.2%.
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@@ -120,6 +120,22 @@ T0.95 discipline:
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- Official allotment-result fields, final T1 public oversubscription, grey-market prices, and D1 returns remain forbidden as live T0.95 inputs unless they were actually available before the user's executable order cutoff, which should be rare and must be documented.
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- T0.95 recommendations may be stronger than T0.5 watchlist language, but they must include expected allocation probability: very strong heat often improves D1 payoff odds while sharply reducing one-lot win rate.
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## Recent Listing Review Overlay
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When producing a broad candidate report, latest IPO list refresh, or cross-IPO subscription ranking, include a recent listed-IPO review unless the user explicitly asks for a narrow single-name answer.
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Review discipline:
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- Use the last 30 calendar days ending at `data_as_of` by default, or the user-specified window when provided.
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- Define the sample explicitly by listing-date range and listing method.
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- Build a compact table with one row per recent IPO covering structure, fundamentals, T1 allotment demand, D1 performance, and the PM lesson.
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- Structure should include at least T0 score and the offer-size/minimum-subscription context when available.
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- Fundamentals should be a short issuer-quality read from archived prospectus facts, not a long-term thesis.
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- T1 performance should include public oversubscription, international placing demand, total score or decision band, and one-lot/application success when available.
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- D1 performance should include D1 return and turnover when available. If D1 data is missing, label it as a `data_gap` and do not infer break/non-break from blank fields.
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- Keep the review post-hoc: use it to calibrate live rules and base rates, but do not let D1/D5/D20/D60 facts leak into current unlisted candidate scores.
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- Add a short mapping from the recent outcomes back to the current candidate batch, clearly distinguishing official T1 demand from non-official T0.5/T0.95 heat.
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## Output Standards
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Every prediction card should include:
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@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
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- HKEX 当前页标注：`Updated: 22 Jun 2026`
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- 当前页结构化代码：`02697`、`06915`、`03952`、`06715`、`02672`、`01191`、`09637`、`09630`、`06228`、`03661`、`01956`、`02272`、`01688`、`02335`、`06106`、`06067`、`06132`、`01392`、`02667`
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- 新增接入：`02697`、`06915`、`03952`、`06715` 四只 2026-06-22 招股书；VBKR/Jieli 2026-06-22T13:57:38Z 市场热度快照。
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- 新增复盘：最近一个月 2026-05-22 至 2026-06-22 上市的 11 只 IPO，按结构、基本面、T1 需求和 D1 表现做后验校准。
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## 结论
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@@ -16,6 +17,28 @@
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官方 T1 方面，截至本次归档时没有抓到 `06067`、`06132` 的分配结果 PDF，因此没有新的官方公开认购倍数写入 `ipo_demand`。本报告的“申购倍数”主要指非官方、申购期内的 VBKR/Jieli 市场热度；不能把它等同于 HKEX 分配结果里的最终公开认购倍数。
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## 最近一个月上市 IPO 复盘
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样本口径：`analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv` 中上市日位于 2026-05-22 至 2026-06-22、上市方式为 IPO 的 11 只新股。T1 表现指官方分配结果阶段的公开认购倍数、国际配售倍数、总分和一手中签率；D1 表现指上市首个交易日收盘相对发行价收益。`00901` 当前归档缺少可用 D1 价格，不把缺失值误判成破发。
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复盘结论很清楚：最近一个月是强 T1 需求主导的窗口。有 D1 数据的 10 只新股里，9 只非负、1 只破发，其中 `01081` 接近平盘，D1 平均约 +91.2%、中位数约 +68.0%。`high_conviction_subscribe` 的 7 只全部 D1 正收益，平均约 +130.5%；最终公开认购 `>=5000x` 的 4 只全部大涨，平均约 +190.8%。相反，`100x 至 1000x` 两只只有 `01081` 平盘、`02290` 破发，说明“有一定倍数”不等于安全，尤其不能把低资金占用直接等同于低破发概率。
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| 股票 | 上市日 | 结构 | 基本面速评 | T1 表现 | D1 表现 | 复盘判断 |
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| `06872` TenNor Therapeutics | 2026-05-22 | T0 7；发行约 HK$6.70 亿；一手约 HK$3,823 | 近商业化抗感染 biotech，管线价值驱动，利润支撑弱 | 公开 9015.11x；国际 9.24x；总分 32；一手中签率约 6.0% | +178.7%；成交约 HK$5.19 亿 | 极强 T1 需求完全覆盖 biotech 基本面不确定性。 |
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| `00901` Shenzhen SDMC Technology | 2026-05-27 | T0 4；发行约 HK$6.30 亿；一手约 HK$3,313 | 智能家居硬件/软件，企业客户为主，硬件周期和毛利弹性需折价 | 公开 1971.99x；国际 2.23x；总分 23；一手中签率约 9.6% | 暂缺 | 需求强但 D1 缺口未补齐，不能用于判断破发/不破发。 |
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| `02723` Beijing DeepZero Technology | 2026-05-27 | T0 7；发行约 HK$5.03 亿；一手约 HK$5,606 | AI 智能营销与企业销售工具，题材强于利润质量 | 公开 5480.23x；国际 3.41x；总分 28 | +265.8%；成交约 HK$7.02 亿 | AI 题材叠加极强公开认购，是本窗口最强反馈之一。 |
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| `03310` Viewtrix Technology | 2026-05-27 | T0 9；发行约 HK$11.00 亿；一手约 HK$4,204 | AMOLED DDIC 芯片设计，国产半导体稀缺成长资产 | 公开 3559.68x；国际 7.05x；总分 30；一手中签率约 10.6% | +91.7%；成交约 HK$6.71 亿 | 半导体基本面和 T1 热度共振，D1 弹性兑现。 |
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| `03388` Shenzhen Creality 3D Technology | 2026-05-29 | T0 6；发行约 HK$13.80 亿；一手约 HK$2,848 | 3D 打印设备、耗材、扫描仪和云服务，全球消费硬件品牌 | 公开 3829.42x；国际 26.80x；总分 32；一手中签率约 17.6% | +21.3%；成交约 HK$8.32 亿 | T1 很强但 D1 弹性低于 AI/biotech/半导体，硬件消费属性压缩涨幅。 |
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| `02553` Beijing Shougang LanzaTech Technology | 2026-06-03 | T0 3；发行约 HK$5.84 亿；一手约 HK$3,454 | CCUS 低碳乙醇/蛋白，仍未盈利，基本面防守弱 | 公开 1421.54x；国际 0.95x；总分 19；一手中签率约 20.0% | +44.2%；成交约 HK$7.80 亿 | T0 弱但公开认购过 1000x 后仍能正反馈；质量折价没有压垮 D1。 |
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| `01081` Dajin Heavy Industry | 2026-06-05 | T0 8；发行约 HK$66.41 亿；一手约 HK$6,707 | 海上风电基础/塔筒龙头，2025 收入 RMB61.7 亿、净利 RMB11.0 亿，盈利质量强 | 公开 134.39x；国际 10.68x；总分 25；一手中签率约 23.5% | 约 0.0%；成交约 HK$11.92 亿 | 大盘盈利工业股降低破发尾部，但低 T1 热度和大发行规模也压低 D1 弹性。 |
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| `01779` LongBio Pharma | 2026-06-05 | T0 10；发行约 HK$13.63 亿；一手约 HK$4,851 | 临床期抗过敏/自身免疫 biologics，管线驱动、盈利未兑现 | 公开 4762.58x；国际 10.94x；总分 36；一手中签率约 10.5% | +37.2%；成交约 HK$5.29 亿 | 结构和 T1 都强，但 biotech 弹性不如 `06872`，仍需看管线叙事强弱。 |
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| `02290` Lung Fung Group | 2026-06-05 | T0 3；发行约 HK$6.48 亿；一手约 HK$3,222 | 香港美妆、健康和药品连锁零售，盈利但本地零售成长性一般 | 公开 664.92x；国际 3.18x；总分 15；一手中签率约 12.3% | -45.8%；成交约 HK$2.40 亿 | 本窗口唯一明显破发；T0 弱、公开认购未过 1000x、题材弹性不足的组合要降权。 |
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| `06658` Liuliumei | 2026-06-15 | T0 6；发行约 HK$5.00 亿；一手约 HK$4,402 | 话梅/果脯零食品牌，2025 净利 RMB1.82 亿，盈利消费股 | 公开 6586.73x；国际 2.64x；总分 27；一手中签率约 6.4% | +193.7%；成交约 HK$5.51 亿 | 盈利消费 + 极强公开认购，验证强 T1 能把普通消费品做出 D1 弹性。 |
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| `06675` SENASIC Electronics | 2026-06-17 | T0 9；发行约 HK$9.81 亿；一手约 HK$3,709 | 汽车无线传感 SoC，2025 收入 RMB4.78 亿、毛利率 28.0%，半导体成长资产 | 公开 5144.97x；国际 4.44x；总分 32；一手中签率约 11.2% | +124.9%；成交约 HK$6.79 亿 | 半导体题材、盈利改善和极强公开认购共同支撑 D1。 |
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对当前批次的映射：`01956` 的 1828.39x 只是 T0.95 非官方热度，但它已经接近最近一个月“最终公开认购 1000x-5000x”胜率较高的需求区间，所以继续偏进攻；`01191`、`09630`、`02272` 目前在 100x-1000x 非官方热度区间，不能因为跨过 100x 就视为安全，仍要看临近截止是否继续升温；`01688` 的 19.89x 还不是强需求信号，它的防守主要来自成熟盈利和大盘吸收能力，而不是来自公开认购的极端拥挤。
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## 基本面横向对比
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`01688` 的基本面是这批里最成熟、最扎实的一类。2025 年收入 RMB514.3 亿元、净利润 RMB23.3 亿元、经调整净利润 RMB26.5 亿元，经营现金流净额 RMB44.3 亿元，收入体量、盈利和现金流都明显领先同批候选。弱点也清楚：制造平台毛利率只有 15.2%，前五大客户收入占比 57.5%，净债务权益比率升到 38.6%。所以它更像“大体量、低弹性、基本面稳”的工业平台；本次热度升到 19.89x 后，短线排序不再被低于 10x 的冷门档拖累。
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@@ -119,6 +142,8 @@
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- VBKR/Jieli 热度页归档：`data/raw/market_heat/vbkr_ipo_hk_index_20260622T135738Z.html`
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- VBKR/Jieli 热度页：`https://www.vbkr.com/ipo/hk/v2/ipo-hk-index`
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- 模型数据集：`data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`
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- 最近一月复盘表现：`data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`；`data/snapshots/price_performance.csv`
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- 评分规则：`rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`；`rules/ipo_score_v0_5_market_heat_trial.yaml`；`rules/ipo_break_risk_reward_v0.yaml`
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- 基本面横向对比：上述 13 只候选的 HKEX 招股书抽文本，索引见 `data/snapshots/source_refs.csv`
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- 最近一月复盘基本面：样本公司 HKEX 招股书抽文本，索引见 `data/snapshots/source_refs.csv`
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- 新增招股书：`data/raw/02697/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200041.pdf`；`data/raw/03952/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200047.pdf`；`data/raw/06715/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200025.pdf`；`data/raw/06915/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200065.pdf`
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