Add IPO analysis model baseline
Request: - Use the analyst skill to digest downloaded IPO archive data and start building an analysis model. Changes: - Add ipo_score_v0 as the first transparent stage-safe scoring rule set. - Add build_analysis_dataset.py to derive model features, scores, decision bands, and empirical D1 calibration from SQLite. - Generate analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv with 293 scored IPO rows and archived source paths. - Add a model calibration report documenting coverage, T0/T1 bucket performance, usage, and known gaps. - Record the initial model entry in the rule change log and document the command in README. Verification: - Ran py_compile for scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py. - Regenerated the analysis dataset and report with as-of 2026-06-15T13:00:00Z. - Checked CSV row count, source path coverage, and repo-relative path hygiene. - Ran git diff --cached --check. Next useful context: - v0 should be treated as a transparent baseline, with T1 high-score calibration strongest and middle buckets still non-monotonic. - T2 is excluded until a reliable grey-market source is approved.
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@@ -129,6 +129,18 @@ Use the price-performance archiver to fill due D1/D5/D20/D60 review checkpoints:
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The archiver stores raw Yahoo Finance chart responses under `data/raw/{ticker}/`, records source references and hashes, writes structured rows into `price_performance`, exports snapshots, and refreshes `sync_tasks`.
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## Analysis Model
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Use the analyst model builder to digest archived data into a stage-safe scoring dataset and calibration report:
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```bash
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.venv/bin/python scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py --as-of 2026-06-15T13:00:00Z
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```
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The v0 model is documented in `rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`. It writes `data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv` and `reports/2026-06-15_analysis_model_v0.md`.
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The model separates T0 prospectus inputs from T1 allotment inputs. D1/D5/D20/D60 returns are labels for calibration and review, not prediction inputs.
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## Incremental Archive Sync
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The archivist keeps a per-ticker sync ledger so repeated updates can focus on missing stages:
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