Clarify IPO short-exit strategy horizon
Request: - Emphasize that the analyst model is for selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not for long-term holding. Changes: - Add explicit T2/D1 sell discipline to the analyst skill. - Update ipo_score_v0 targets and holding policy so D1 sell return is primary and T2 is the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists. - Clarify that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not planned holding targets. - Update the model report, single-ticker report generator, README, and the 06106 report language to reflect the short-exit horizon. Verification: - Rebuilt the model report with the same dataset timestamp and confirmed the analysis dataset did not change. - Ran py_compile for build_analysis_dataset.py and generate_ipo_report.py. - Generated a 06106 dry-run report showing T2/D1 exit discipline. - Ran git diff --check. Next useful context: - T2 is still disabled in v0 until archivist approves a reliable grey-market data source; D1 remains the live modeled sell label.
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- Model dataset as of: `2026-06-15T14:04:34Z`
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- Rule version: `ipo_score_v0`
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- Rule path: `rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`
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- Strategy horizon: short IPO subscription trade; intended exit is T2 grey market if reliable, otherwise D1.
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- Decision: `strong_watch`
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- PM action: Strong watch at T0, still pending T1 demand confirmation.
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- PM action: Strong watch at T0, still pending T1 demand confirmation for a T2/D1 exit.
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- T0 score: `11`
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- Score bucket: `t0_gte_8`
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- Calibrated D1 positive probability: 76.4% from 72 historical D1 labels
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| Initial public offer percentage | 5.0% |
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| Over-allotment shares | 1,574,550 |
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## Model Inference
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## Short-Exit Model Inference
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- D1 positive probability: 76.4%
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- D1 >= 10% probability: 47.2%
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- Historical average D1 return for bucket: 28.6%
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- Historical median D1 return for bucket: 9.6%
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- T2 sell return is not modeled until an approved grey-market data source exists.
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- D5/D20/D60 outcomes are review labels only, not holding targets.
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## Score Breakdown
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@@ -64,8 +67,8 @@
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- No material negative scoring component.
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- No required report field is blank for this stage.
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- T2 grey-market signal is not used because the project has no approved reproducible source.
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- Post-listing D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes are labels for model calibration only and are not shown as prediction inputs.
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- T2 grey-market signal is not used yet because the project has no approved reproducible source.
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- Post-listing D5/D20/D60 outcomes are labels for later review only and are not holding-period targets.
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## Triggers
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@@ -74,9 +77,10 @@
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## Exit Plan
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- If subscribed and allocated, reassess after allotment and before first trading session using only information available at that stage.
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- For T1 reports without approved T2 data, treat first-day liquidity and position sizing conservatively.
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- Record actual D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes later as review labels, not as retroactive prediction inputs.
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- If subscribed and allocated, plan to sell in T2 grey market when reliable executable data is available.
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- If T2 is unavailable or unreliable, use D1 as the default exit window.
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- Do not treat D5/D20/D60 as planned holding periods for this model.
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- Record D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes later as review labels, not as retroactive prediction inputs.
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## Source Paths
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@@ -7,9 +7,9 @@
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## What This Model Does
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This is the first analyst model built from the downloaded archive. It creates a repeatable feature table, scores each IPO using stage-safe rules, and calibrates the score buckets against archived D1 outcomes. It is intentionally transparent: the output includes every score component and the archived source paths used for each ticker.
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This is the first analyst model built from the downloaded archive. It creates a repeatable feature table, scores each IPO using stage-safe rules, and calibrates the score buckets against archived D1 sell outcomes. It is intentionally transparent: the output includes every score component and the archived source paths used for each ticker.
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The model does not use grey-market data in v0 because T2 currently has no approved reproducible source. It also does not use post-listing returns as inputs; returns are labels only.
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The model is built for a short IPO allocation trade: sell in T2 grey market when reliable executable data exists, or sell on D1 otherwise. It does not use grey-market data in v0 because T2 currently has no approved reproducible source. It also does not use post-listing returns as inputs; D1 is the primary sell label, while D5/D20/D60 are review labels only.
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## Data Inventory
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@@ -58,7 +58,8 @@ The high-conviction bucket remains clearly differentiated, but the middle and lo
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1. Run `scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py` after archivist updates the database.
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2. Use `t0_score` for prospectus-stage watchlisting.
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3. Use `total_score`, `decision_band`, and `calibrated_d1_positive_rate` for T1-stage subscription cards.
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4. Treat D1/D5/D20/D60 columns as review labels only, never as prediction inputs.
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4. Frame live decisions around a T2 or D1 sell, not long-term holding.
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5. Treat D5/D20/D60 columns as review labels only, never as prediction inputs or holding targets.
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## Known Gaps
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