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29ed22e476
Request: - Emphasize that the analyst model is for selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not for long-term holding. Changes: - Add explicit T2/D1 sell discipline to the analyst skill. - Update ipo_score_v0 targets and holding policy so D1 sell return is primary and T2 is the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists. - Clarify that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not planned holding targets. - Update the model report, single-ticker report generator, README, and the 06106 report language to reflect the short-exit horizon. Verification: - Rebuilt the model report with the same dataset timestamp and confirmed the analysis dataset did not change. - Ran py_compile for build_analysis_dataset.py and generate_ipo_report.py. - Generated a 06106 dry-run report showing T2/D1 exit discipline. - Ran git diff --check. Next useful context: - T2 is still disabled in v0 until archivist approves a reliable grey-market data source; D1 remains the live modeled sell label.
3.0 KiB
3.0 KiB
06106 IPO Analyst Report
Summary
- Ticker:
06106 - Company: Shanghai Seer Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.
- Stage:
T0_prospectus - Report as of:
2026-06-15T15:00:00Z - Model dataset as of:
2026-06-15T14:04:34Z - Rule version:
ipo_score_v0 - Rule path:
rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml - Strategy horizon: short IPO subscription trade; intended exit is T2 grey market if reliable, otherwise D1.
- Decision:
strong_watch - PM action: Strong watch at T0, still pending T1 demand confirmation for a T2/D1 exit.
- T0 score:
11 - Score bucket:
t0_gte_8 - Calibrated D1 positive probability: 76.4% from 72 historical D1 labels
Facts
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Board | Main Board |
| Status | open_for_subscription |
| Listing date | 2026-06-24 |
| Application period | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-18 |
| Allotment result date | 2026-06-23 |
| Listing method | n/a |
| Industry | Industrial intelligent robots / robot controllers |
| Sponsors | n/a |
| Offer price | HK$101.60 |
| Offer size | HK$1,066.5m |
| Market cap | HK$11,226.5m |
| Board lot | 50 |
| Minimum subscription | HK$5,131.24 |
| Initial public offer percentage | 5.0% |
| Over-allotment shares | 1,574,550 |
Short-Exit Model Inference
- D1 positive probability: 76.4%
- D1 >= 10% probability: 47.2%
- Historical average D1 return for bucket: 28.6%
- Historical median D1 return for bucket: 9.6%
- T2 sell return is not modeled until an approved grey-market data source exists.
- D5/D20/D60 outcomes are review labels only, not holding targets.
Score Breakdown
| Component | Points | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Offer size | 4 | 800m_to_2000m |
| Initial public offer percentage | 3 | lte_5pct |
| Minimum subscription | 2 | 3500_to_10000 |
| Offer price | 1 | gte_100 |
| Over-allotment option | 1 | present |
Bull Points
- Offer size: +4 (
800m_to_2000m). - Initial public offer percentage: +3 (
lte_5pct). - Minimum subscription: +2 (
3500_to_10000). - Offer price: +1 (
gte_100). - Over-allotment option: +1 (
present).
Risks And Gaps
- No material negative scoring component.
- No required report field is blank for this stage.
- T2 grey-market signal is not used yet because the project has no approved reproducible source.
- Post-listing D5/D20/D60 outcomes are labels for later review only and are not holding-period targets.
Triggers
- Upgrade: stronger verified T1 demand, better allocation scarcity, or a new rule-backed positive catalyst.
- Downgrade: weak public or international demand, oversized supply, low-quality missing fields, or adverse market window.
Exit Plan
- If subscribed and allocated, plan to sell in T2 grey market when reliable executable data is available.
- If T2 is unavailable or unreliable, use D1 as the default exit window.
- Do not treat D5/D20/D60 as planned holding periods for this model.
- Record D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes later as review labels, not as retroactive prediction inputs.
Source Paths
data/raw/06106/prospectus_candidate_2026-06-15.pdf