Add T2 grey-market review overlay

Request:
- Add T2_grey_market prices to the hk-ipo-analyst review logic.
- Analyze and document credible grey-market data sources inside the skill.

Changes:
- Added T2 grey-market source-quality reviews to the analyst skill description.
- Required latest candidate and recent-listing reviews to include T2 grey-market context when reliable archived evidence exists.
- Added a T2 Grey-Market Review Overlay section with required fields, source tiers, and data-gap guardrails.
- Updated review-card requirements to include T2 grey-market price/return or an explicit data_gap.

Verification:
- Ran python3 /root/.codex/skills/.system/skill-creator/scripts/quick_validate.py .agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst.
- Ran git diff --cached --check.
- Confirmed Codex CLI parses in this repo with codex --search -s danger-full-access -a never exec -C /root/projects/hk-ipo --help.

Next useful context:
- Tier 1 is executable broker/account evidence; Tier 2 is reproducible public broker quote pages; Tier 3 is attributed aggregators/history datasets; Tier 4 is weak news/community color.
- Do not scrape or redistribute proprietary grey-market feeds without an approved source strategy, and do not infer T2 from D1.

.agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md

@@ -3,9 +3,9 @@ name: hk-ipo-analyst
 description: >-
   Use for Hong Kong IPO subscription analysis in this project: T0/T1/T2
   prediction cards, scoring, cross-IPO comparison, research reports,
-  A/H dual-listed valuation overlays, post-listing reviews, error attribution,
-  and rule-update recommendations. Use archived facts when available and keep
-  predictions append-only.
+  A/H dual-listed valuation overlays, T2 grey-market source-quality reviews,
+  post-listing reviews, error attribution, and rule-update recommendations. Use
+  archived facts when available and keep predictions append-only.
 ---
 
 # HK IPO Analyst
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ Do not lead broad candidate reports with post-listing reviews; keep those after
 
 For scheduled runs, latest IPO list refreshes, and broad candidate reports, first use `hk-ipo-archivist` to refresh the latest internet-sourced IPO universe and archive updates before making analyst judgments. This includes the HKEX current new-listing page, newly available prospectuses, allotment-result announcements, listing-calendar changes, recent price-performance rows for review, and subscription-period market heat such as broker-aggregated margin subscription multiples.
 
-Refresh the report content as a complete current snapshot, not as a partial patch. The dated report should be written to `reports/{date}_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md` and should update all relevant sections: actionable ranking, fundamentals, break-probability/risk-reward, capital efficiency, per-IPO notes, closed/waiting names, recent 30-day listed-IPO review, data gaps, and sources.
+Refresh the report content as a complete current snapshot, not as a partial patch. The dated report should be written to `reports/{date}_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md` and should update all relevant sections: actionable ranking, fundamentals, break-probability/risk-reward, capital efficiency, per-IPO notes, closed/waiting names, recent 30-day listed-IPO review with T2 grey-market context when available, data gaps, and sources.
 
 If any current or recently closed candidate already has A Shares or another onshore-listed share class, the latest report must include the A/H dual-listed overlay described below. Do not leave this only implicit in the fundamentals section.
 
@@ -174,6 +174,28 @@ T0.95 discipline:
 - Official allotment-result fields, final T1 public oversubscription, grey-market prices, and D1 returns remain forbidden as live T0.95 inputs unless they were actually available before the user's executable order cutoff, which should be rare and must be documented.
 - T0.95 recommendations may be stronger than T0.5 watchlist language, but they must include expected allocation probability: very strong heat often improves D1 payoff odds while sharply reducing one-lot win rate.
 
+## T2 Grey-Market Review Overlay
+
+When producing T2 reports, post-listing reviews, recent listed-IPO review tables, error attribution, or rule-update recommendations, include T2 grey-market price evidence when a reliable archived source exists. The intended exit window is T2/D1, so reviews should compare the frozen recommendation against both the executable grey-market outcome and the D1 outcome.
+
+Required T2 fields when available:
+
+- `grey_market_date` and observed time/window.
+- provider or venue, such as `PhillipMart`, `Futu`, `Chief`, `KGI`, `Webull`, broker account evidence, or a named aggregator.
+- last or close grey-market price, and open/high/low/turnover/volume when available.
+- grey-market return versus final offer price, plus one-lot mark-to-market profit/loss.
+- source tier, source path, URL, archived timestamp, and whether the quote was executable for the user.
+- comparison to D1 open/close return, with a short read on whether T2 gave a better exit than waiting for D1.
+
+Use this source credibility hierarchy:
+
+1. **Tier 1 executable broker evidence**: user-provided order/trade confirmation, account statement, or broker export from a grey-market platform, and direct broker grey-market pages or APIs that show timestamped executable quotes from the broker's own system. These are best for T2 execution analysis when they can be archived with permission and sanitized where needed.
+2. **Tier 2 public broker quote pages**: broker-operated public quote pages with stock code, trade date, timestamp, last/close price, high/low, turnover or volume. Use when archiving is allowed and the source can be reproduced. Label the provider clearly; liquidity may be venue-specific.
+3. **Tier 3 attributed aggregators**: pages such as financial portals or IPO-history datasets that state the underlying broker/provider or publish a historical `grey_market_return_pct`. Use for calibration and cross-checks when Tier 1/2 evidence is missing, but label them as non-executable third-party summaries.
+4. **Tier 4 news, forum posts, screenshots, and social media**: use only as qualitative color or conflict checks. Do not treat these as authoritative price evidence unless no other source exists and the report marks the field as weak evidence.
+
+Do not scrape or redistribute proprietary grey-market feeds without an approved source strategy. If the project only has `external_ipo_history.grey_market_return_pct`, state that it is an external historical summary rather than a broker-executable price. If no reliable T2 source exists, mark `T2_grey_market` as `data_gap` and do not infer it from D1.
+
 ## Recent Listing Review Overlay
 
 When producing a broad candidate report, latest IPO list refresh, or cross-IPO subscription ranking, include a recent listed-IPO review unless the user explicitly asks for a narrow single-name answer.
@@ -182,10 +204,11 @@ Review discipline:
 
 - Use the last 30 calendar days ending at `data_as_of` by default, or the user-specified window when provided.
 - Define the sample explicitly by listing-date range and listing method.
-- Build a compact table with one row per recent IPO covering structure, fundamentals, T1 allotment demand, D1 performance, and the PM lesson.
+- Build a compact table with one row per recent IPO covering structure, fundamentals, T1 allotment demand, T2 grey-market performance when reliable, D1 performance, and the PM lesson.
 - Structure should include at least T0 score and the offer-size/minimum-subscription context when available.
 - Fundamentals should be a short issuer-quality read from archived prospectus facts, not a long-term thesis.
 - T1 performance should include public oversubscription, international placing demand, total score or decision band, and one-lot/application success when available.
+- T2 performance should include grey-market provider, source tier, grey-market return, and whether T2 would have improved or worsened the intended exit versus D1. If T2 data is missing or only available from weak sources, label it as `data_gap` or weak evidence and do not infer it from D1.
 - D1 performance should include D1 return and turnover when available. If D1 data is missing, label it as a `data_gap` and do not infer break/non-break from blank fields.
 - Keep the review post-hoc: use it to calibrate live rules and base rates, but do not let D1/D5/D20/D60 facts leak into current unlisted candidate scores.
 - Add a short mapping from the recent outcomes back to the current candidate batch, clearly distinguishing official T1 demand from non-official T0.5/T0.95 heat.
@@ -220,6 +243,7 @@ Every review card should include:
 
 - linked prediction card
 - actual IPO outcome
+- T2 grey-market price/return and source-quality tier when reliable, or explicit `data_gap`
 - direction correctness
 - magnitude error
 - reason correctness