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Refresh HK IPO heat ranking

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Request:
- Update the latest Hong Kong IPO candidate list and rescore it based on subscription multiples.

Changes:
- Archived the 2026-06-22 HKEX Main Board New Listing Information page, adding 02697, 03952, 06715, and 06915 to the current candidate set.
- Archived and extracted the four new prospectuses, refreshed current HKEX document facts, and rebuilt the v0 analysis dataset to 311 rows.
- Archived a 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z VBKR/Jieli market-heat snapshot and wrote only still-actionable T0.95 rows to avoid look-ahead leakage for already-closed IPOs.
- Improved prospectus date parsing for split weekday/month text, glued noon/commence phrases, and current new-listing expected listing-date updates.
- Added a Chinese 2026-06-22 latest IPO report ranking candidates after the subscription-multiple overlay.

Verification:
- Ran py_compile for archive_hkex_documents.py, archive_t0_5_market_heat.py, archive_hkex_current_new_listings.py, and build_analysis_dataset.py.
- Re-ran HKEX current-page seeding, document archiving, market-heat archiving, and analysis dataset build as of 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z.
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Ran SQLite integrity_check and foreign_key_check.
- Verified source_refs paths, file existence, and SHA-256 hashes.

Next useful context:
- 01956 is the only current candidate with both strong T0 structure and >100x actionable heat in this snapshot.
- Recheck 03952 and 06715 near the 2026-06-25 cutoff; their structure is strong but 2026-06-22 heat is below 10x.
- Official T1 allotment facts for 06067 and 06132 were still unavailable at this archive timestamp.
This commit is contained in:
geometrybase
2026-06-22 09:03:50 +00:00
parent e346690bb7
commit e746cae035
24 changed files with 96314 additions and 2979 deletions
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reports/2026-06-15_analysis_model_v0.md
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# HK IPO Analysis Model v0
- Model version: `ipo_score_v0`
- Analysis as of: `2026-06-21T08:44:59Z`
- Analysis as of: `2026-06-22T08:55:00Z`
- Rule file: `rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`
- Dataset: `data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`
@@ -13,23 +13,23 @@ The model is built for a short IPO allocation trade: sell in T2 grey market when
## Data Inventory
- IPO rows scored: 307
- IPO rows scored: 311
- Rows with D1 labels: 274
- Rows with structured T1 demand fields: 293
- Rows with prospectus source path: 307
- Rows with prospectus source path: 311
- Rows with allotment source path: 293
- Rows with offer size: 307
- Rows with offer size: 311
- Rows with public oversubscription: 283
- Rows with international oversubscription: 278
- Rows with market heat snapshots: 5
- Rows with market heat snapshots: 18
- Rows with T0.5 margin heat snapshots: 5
- Rows with T0.95 late-order heat snapshots: 0
- Rows with T0.95 late-order heat snapshots: 13
- Rows with T0.5 margin heat and D1 labels: 0
- Rows with T0.95 late-order heat and D1 labels: 0
- Rows matched to external ipohk history: 102
- Rows with external final oversubscription: 95
- Rows with external final oversubscription and D1 labels: 85
- Rows pending T1 structure: 14 (01191, 01688, 01956, 02272, 02335, 02667, 02672, 03661, 06067, 06106, 06132, 06228, 09630, 09637)
- Rows pending T1 structure: 18 (01191, 01688, 01956, 02272, 02335, 02667, 02672, 02697, 03661, 03952, 06067, 06106, 06132, 06228, 06715, 06915, 09630, 09637)
- T1 field-level blanks: public oversubscription 10, international oversubscription 15, valid applications 6, successful applications 18
## T0 Calibration
@@ -59,10 +59,10 @@ T1 adds allotment-stage demand: public subscription, international placing deman
T0.5 uses archived subscription-period margin heat snapshots. T0.95 is the near-deadline subset that is still actionable before the user's order cutoff. These are non-official live signals and are kept separate from T1 allotment demand. The current archive is not yet a historical training set: it has too few rows and no D1 labels for calibration.
- Total market heat rows: 5
- Total market heat rows: 18
- T0.5 margin rows: 5
- T0.5 rows with D1 labels: 0
- T0.95 late-order heat rows: 0
- T0.95 late-order heat rows: 13
- T0.95 rows with D1 labels: 0
## External Final Heat Proxy
reports/2026-06-22_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md
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# 2026-06-22 最新港股 IPO 申购倍数重打分
- `data_as_of`: 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z（香港时间 2026-06-22 16:55:00）
- `rule_version`: `ipo_score_v0` + 当前数据集的市场热度加分层
- HKEX 当前页标注：`Updated: 22 Jun 2026`
- 当前页结构化代码：`02697`、`06915`、`03952`、`06715`、`02672`、`01191`、`09637`、`09630`、`06228`、`03661`、`01956`、`02272`、`01688`、`02335`、`06106`、`06067`、`06132`、`01392`、`02667`
- 新增接入：`02697`、`06915`、`03952`、`06715` 四只 2026-06-22 招股书；VBKR/Jieli 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z 市场热度快照。
## 结论
按最新申购倍数重排后，当前唯一能从“结构分 + 申购倍数”同时站出来的是 `01956`。它 T0 结构分 11，VBKR/Jieli 申购倍数 625.33x，热度加 3 分，合计 14 分，是本轮 2026-06-23 截止组的第一优先。
`03661`、`01191`、`03952` 是第二梯队，但原因不同：`03661` 结构强、热度 12.80x 只是中性；`01191` 结构 8 分、热度 45.38x 中性；`03952` 原始结构 11 分，但最新热度只有 1.95x，被扣 3 分后降到 8 分。也就是说，`03952` 暂时不能只靠好结构越过 `01956`。
新加入的四只 2026-06-25 截止票整体热度偏弱：`03952` 1.95x、`06715` 1.69x、`06915` 1.20x、`02697` 0.25x，全部低于 10x 并被扣 3 分。它们需要在 2026-06-24/25 再抓一次更近截止的热度，否则不应排进主申购名单。
官方 T1 方面，截至本次归档时没有抓到 `06067`、`06132` 的分配结果 PDF，因此没有新的官方公开认购倍数写入 `ipo_demand`。本报告的“申购倍数”主要指非官方、申购期内的 VBKR/Jieli 市场热度；不能把它等同于 HKEX 分配结果里的最终公开认购倍数。
## 可申购名单重排
市场热度加分口径：`<10x = -3`，`10x 至 100x = 0`，`100x 至 1000x = +3`，`1000x 至 5000x = +6`。排序先看 `T0 + 热度`，再看截止时间和 PM 判断。
| 排名 | 股票 | 截止 / T1 / D1 | T0 分 | 申购倍数 | 加分 | 合计 | PM 判断 |
|---:|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 1 | `01956` Beijing Zhongke WengeAI Science and Technology Co., Ltd | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 11 | 625.33x | +3 | 14 | 本轮首选；结构和热度都支持优先申购，但仍按 T1/D1 退出纪律执行。 |
| 2 | `03661` SG Micro Corp | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 9 | 12.80x | 0 | 9 | 结构强，但热度只是刚过 10x；可小额或等更近截止快照。 |
| 3 | `01191` Crealights Technology Co., Ltd. | 2026-06-24 / 2026-06-26 / 2026-06-29 | 8 | 45.38x | 0 | 8 | 6 月 24 日截止组首选；热度中性，不是强热。 |
| 4 | `03952` Zhejiang Laifual Drive Co., Ltd. | 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-29 / 2026-06-30 | 11 | 1.95x | -3 | 8 | 新票里结构最好，但当前认购太冷；等待下一次热度复查。 |
| 5 | `09630` Circuit Fabology | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 7 | 84.76x | 0 | 7 | 接近 100x 但未跨档；高价高一手金额，排在强结构票之后。 |
| 6 | `06715` Hangzhou Qiandaohu Xunlong Sci-tech Co., Ltd. | 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-29 / 2026-06-30 | 10 | 1.69x | -3 | 7 | 结构可看，热度明显不足；先观察。 |
| 7 | `09637` Alebund Pharmaceuticals (Jiangsu) Limited - B | 2026-06-24 / 2026-06-26 / 2026-06-29 | 6 | 24.01x | 0 | 6 | 18A-B 标的，短线需要更强需求确认。 |
| 8 | `02272` Keytop Parking Inc. | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 4 | 75.16x | 0 | 4 | 原始结构一般；不因 75x 热度上调。 |
| 9 | `01688` LINGYI iTECH (GUANGDONG) COMPANY | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 7 | 6.54x | -3 | 4 | 超大规模且热度低，降级观察。 |
| 10 | `02672` Baige Online Digital Technology Co., Ltd. | 2026-06-24 / 2026-06-26 / 2026-06-29 | 6 | 7.52x | -3 | 3 | 低于 10x，被热度拖累。 |
| 11 | `06915` Jiangxi Institute of Biological Products Inc. | 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-29 / 2026-06-30 | 6 | 1.20x | -3 | 3 | 新票，当前不急。 |
| 12 | `06228` PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk | 2026-06-23 / 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-26 | 5 | 2.14x | -3 | 2 | HDR/资源结构特殊，热度不足。 |
| 13 | `02697` Guangdong True Health Medical Technology Development Co., Ltd.- B | 2026-06-25 / 2026-06-29 / 2026-06-30 | 3 | 0.25x | -3 | 0 | 18A-B 且结构弱、热度弱，当前回避。 |
## 已过窗口 / 等 T1
| 股票 | 阶段 | 可用事实 | PM 判断 |
|---|---|---|---|
| `06132` | 已截止，等 T1 | 截止前旧热度 135.39x；官方 T1 未抓到 | 不用 6 月 22 日页面热度倒推申购决策；等 HKEX 分配结果。 |
| `06067` | 已截止，等 T1 | 截止前旧热度 109.20x；官方 T1 未抓到 | 同上，仍按 T1 出来后再重算。 |
| `06106` | 已截止，等 T1 | 截止前旧热度 326.58x；T1 预期 2026-06-23 | 保持等待组靠前，但不新增下单。 |
| `02335` | 已截止，等 T1 | 截止前旧热度 34.84x；T1 预期 2026-06-23 | 热度低于 `06106`，等待组靠后。 |
| `01392` | 已上市/复盘 | 官方公开认购 7181.21x；总分 29；`high_conviction_subscribe` | 已非新增申购；若有货，纪律是上市后尽快按策略退出。 |
| `02667` | 特殊/滞后项 | 仍在 HKEX 当前页，但招股期是 2026-03-20 至 2026-03-25 | 继续排除出 6 月新批次。 |
## 执行建议
- 2026-06-23 截止组：优先只看 `01956`；`03661` 可小额或等更近截止快照；`09630`、`02272`、`01688`、`06228` 不排前列。
- 2026-06-24 截止组：`01191` 暂列第一；`09637` 次之；`02672` 因低于 10x 热度降级。
- 2026-06-25 截止组：`03952` 和 `06715` 结构分高，但当前热度太冷，必须在 2026-06-24 或 2026-06-25 截止前复查。
- 如果只能做一只，当前答案是 `01956`；如果要分散，第二选择也应等 6 月 23 日更近截止的热度确认后再定。
## 本次数据接入和护栏
- 归档 HKEX 当前页 `data/raw/hkex_new_listing_information/main_board_20260622.html`。
- 归档并抽取四只新股招股书：`02697`、`03952`、`06715`、`06915`。
- 归档 VBKR/Jieli 2026-06-22T08:55:00Z 热度快照，解析 17 行；只把仍可申购、截止时间可解析的 13 行写入 `T0_95_final_heat`，避免把已截止票的热度倒灌到历史决策。
- 修补 HKEX 招股书日期解析：支持拆字星期/月名、`noon on` 粘连、`expected to commence on` 粘连，以及当前新股行的预期上市日覆盖。
- 重建 `data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`，模型行数 311。
## 来源
- HKEX 当前页归档：`data/raw/hkex_new_listing_information/main_board_20260622.html`
- HKEX 官方当前页：`https://www2.hkexnews.hk/New-Listings/New-Listing-Information/Main-Board?sc_lang=en`
- VBKR/Jieli 热度页归档：`data/raw/market_heat/vbkr_ipo_hk_index_20260622T085500Z.html`
- VBKR/Jieli 热度页：`https://www.vbkr.com/ipo/hk/v2/ipo-hk-index`
- 模型数据集：`data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`
- 评分规则：`rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`；`rules/ipo_score_v0_5_market_heat_trial.yaml`
- 新增招股书：`data/raw/02697/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200041.pdf`；`data/raw/03952/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200047.pdf`；`data/raw/06715/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200025.pdf`；`data/raw/06915/prospectus_2026-06-22_2026062200065.pdf`