diff --git a/reports/2026-06-15_06106_T0_prospectus_analysis.md b/reports/2026-06-15_06106_T0_prospectus_analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d9617f --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/2026-06-15_06106_T0_prospectus_analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +# 06106 IPO Analyst Report + +## Summary + +- Ticker: `06106` +- Company: Shanghai Seer Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. +- Stage: `T0_prospectus` +- Report as of: `2026-06-15T15:00:00Z` +- Model dataset as of: `2026-06-15T14:04:34Z` +- Rule version: `ipo_score_v0` +- Rule path: `rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml` +- Decision: `strong_watch` +- PM action: Strong watch at T0, still pending T1 demand confirmation. +- T0 score: `11` +- Score bucket: `t0_gte_8` +- Calibrated D1 positive probability: 76.4% from 72 historical D1 labels + +## Facts + +| Field | Value | +| --- | --- | +| Board | Main Board | +| Status | open_for_subscription | +| Listing date | 2026-06-24 | +| Application period | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-18 | +| Allotment result date | 2026-06-23 | +| Listing method | n/a | +| Industry | Industrial intelligent robots / robot controllers | +| Sponsors | n/a | +| Offer price | HK$101.60 | +| Offer size | HK$1,066.5m | +| Market cap | HK$11,226.5m | +| Board lot | 50 | +| Minimum subscription | HK$5,131.24 | +| Initial public offer percentage | 5.0% | +| Over-allotment shares | 1,574,550 | + +## Model Inference + +- D1 positive probability: 76.4% +- D1 >= 10% probability: 47.2% +- Historical average D1 return for bucket: 28.6% +- Historical median D1 return for bucket: 9.6% + +## Score Breakdown + +| Component | Points | Reason | +| --- | ---: | --- | +| Offer size | 4 | `800m_to_2000m` | +| Initial public offer percentage | 3 | `lte_5pct` | +| Minimum subscription | 2 | `3500_to_10000` | +| Offer price | 1 | `gte_100` | +| Over-allotment option | 1 | `present` | + +## Bull Points + +- Offer size: +4 (`800m_to_2000m`). +- Initial public offer percentage: +3 (`lte_5pct`). +- Minimum subscription: +2 (`3500_to_10000`). +- Offer price: +1 (`gte_100`). +- Over-allotment option: +1 (`present`). + +## Risks And Gaps + +- No material negative scoring component. +- No required report field is blank for this stage. +- T2 grey-market signal is not used because the project has no approved reproducible source. +- Post-listing D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes are labels for model calibration only and are not shown as prediction inputs. + +## Triggers + +- Upgrade: stronger verified T1 demand, better allocation scarcity, or a new rule-backed positive catalyst. +- Downgrade: weak public or international demand, oversized supply, low-quality missing fields, or adverse market window. + +## Exit Plan + +- If subscribed and allocated, reassess after allotment and before first trading session using only information available at that stage. +- For T1 reports without approved T2 data, treat first-day liquidity and position sizing conservatively. +- Record actual D1/D5/D20/D60 outcomes later as review labels, not as retroactive prediction inputs. + +## Source Paths + +- `data/raw/06106/prospectus_candidate_2026-06-15.pdf`