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Add IPO break risk reward overlay

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Request:
- Analyze the current HK IPO batch from break probability, capital efficiency, and risk/reward.
- Test whether names such as 01688 deserve a higher defensive ranking than their heat score implies.

Changes:
- Added rules/ipo_break_risk_reward_v0.yaml as an experimental defensive overlay.
- Split the new framework into break protection, capital efficiency, and upside optionality.
- Added historical break-rate calibration anchors from analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv.
- Updated the 2026-06-22 IPO report with a defensive risk/reward ranking and dual execution guidance.
- Logged the rule change and its caveats.

Verification:
- Ran git diff --check and git diff --cached --check.
- Parsed the new YAML file with PyYAML.
- Recomputed key historical break-rate anchors from the current model dataset.
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2026-06-22 09:38:30 +00:00
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rules/rule_change_log.md
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# Rule Change Log
## 2026-06-22 - Add defensive IPO break-risk/reward overlay
Request:
- Evaluate the current IPO batch from break probability, cash efficiency, and risk/reward rather than only heat-adjusted upside.
Change:
- Added `rules/ipo_break_risk_reward_v0.yaml` as an experimental overlay.
- Split the new lens into break protection, capital efficiency, and upside optionality.
- Added empirical calibration anchors from `analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv`, including historical D1 break rates by T0 score, offer-size bucket, and final public oversubscription bucket.
- Updated the 2026-06-22 latest IPO report with a defensive risk/reward ranking for the 13 current candidates.
Rationale:
- A low subscription multiple can improve allocation and cash-lockup efficiency, but it does not automatically reduce break risk.
- Mature profitable issuers such as `01688` may have better defensive risk/reward than their heat score implies, while high-heat names such as `01956` remain more pop-driven.
Verification:
- Recomputed the calibration anchors from the current model dataset.
- Checked that the overlay is documented as ordinal and comparative, not as a standalone probability forecast.
## 2026-06-15 - Add T0.95 late-order heat stage
Request: