From 40d748cda8540be7395a5bfc0f258340117ba636 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: geometrybase Date: Tue, 23 Jun 2026 11:30:36 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Keep unconfirmed D1 IPOs in risk tables Request: Ensure the break-probability, risk/reward, and capital-efficiency section includes IPOs without confirmed D1 break/non-break outcomes, even after subscription closes. Changes: - Update the hk-ipo-analyst skill so broad reports keep all current or recently closed unresolved D1 names in the probability/risk section. - Update the scheduled analyst prompt to preserve this coverage during automated refreshes. - Refresh the latest report and README with a D1-unconfirmed risk table covering current actionable names plus closed/waiting names. Verification: - python3 /root/.codex/skills/.system/skill-creator/scripts/quick_validate.py .agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst - bash -n scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh - git diff --check - Python check that reports/README.md matches the dated latest report and includes the closed/waiting D1-unconfirmed tickers --- .agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md | 4 ++- ...26-06-23_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md | 30 ++++++++++++------- reports/README.md | 30 ++++++++++++------- scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh | 1 + 4 files changed, 42 insertions(+), 23 deletions(-) diff --git a/.agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md b/.agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md index 7a04434..ed08b76 100644 --- a/.agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md +++ b/.agents/skills/hk-ipo-analyst/SKILL.md @@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ For broad/latest candidate reports whose purpose is deciding what can be subscri 1. Scoring/ranking table for currently actionable IPOs. 2. Fundamentals cross-check for the current batch. -3. Break-probability, risk/reward, and capital-efficiency framework. +3. Break-probability, risk/reward, and capital-efficiency framework for every current or recently closed ticker whose D1 break/non-break outcome is not yet confirmed. 4. Per-IPO notes, execution guidance, and closed/waiting names. 5. Recent 30-day listed-IPO review as post-hoc calibration. 6. Data-refresh guardrails and sources. @@ -110,6 +110,8 @@ For scheduled runs, latest IPO list refreshes, and broad candidate reports, firs Refresh the report content as a complete current snapshot, not as a partial patch. The dated report should be written to `reports/{date}_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md` and should update all relevant sections: actionable ranking, fundamentals, break-probability/risk-reward, capital efficiency, per-IPO notes, closed/waiting names, recent 30-day listed-IPO review with T2 grey-market context when available, data gaps, and sources. +The break-probability, risk/reward, and capital-efficiency section must cover all current or recently closed IPOs that do not yet have confirmed D1 break/non-break information, including names whose subscription window has already closed and are waiting for T1/T2/D1. Do not drop a ticker from this section merely because the user can no longer subscribe; keep its probability/risk view visible until D1 outcome is archived or explicitly confirmed. Once D1 is confirmed, move it out of the probability table and into the recent listed-IPO review. + If any current or recently closed candidate already has A Shares or another onshore-listed share class, the latest report must include the A/H dual-listed overlay described below. Do not leave this only implicit in the fundamentals section. Market heat and subscription multiples must remain stage-safe: diff --git a/reports/2026-06-23_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md b/reports/2026-06-23_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md index 9b66e0a..7b39dd1 100644 --- a/reports/2026-06-23_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md +++ b/reports/2026-06-23_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md @@ -41,18 +41,26 @@ 当前 `analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv` 有 312 行，其中 278 行有内部 D1 标签。全样本破发率约 27.7%，D1 平均收益约 +27.9%，中位数约 +7.0%。T0 分数 `>=8` 的样本破发率约 22.7%，T0 `<=4` 的破发率约 36.5%。发行规模 HK$50 亿以上样本破发率约 19.2%，低于 HK$10 亿样本约 30.5%。官方最终公开认购 `>=1000x` 样本破发率约 9.8%，但 `100x 至 1000x` 样本破发率约 32.9%，`10x 至 100x` 样本破发率约 44.4%。 -这些历史数值只用于校准。当前可申购候选还没有官方 T1，只有非官方 `T0_95_final_heat`，所以不能把 VBKR/Jieli 倍数直接当最终公开认购倍数。 +这些历史数值只用于校准。当前可申购候选还没有官方 T1，已截止但未上市/未确认 D1 的股票也没有破发或不破发结论，所以都必须保留概率视角。下表覆盖“当前可申购 + 已截止等 T1/T2/D1”的 D1 未确认全集；`06067`、`06132`、`01392` 已有 D1 结果，转入复盘区，不再放进预测概率表。 -| 防守排序 | 股票 | 股票名 | 破发保护 | 资金效率 | 上行弹性 | 防守型分 | PM 判断 | -|---:|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| -| 1 | `01191` | 海光芯正 | 6.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 68.8 | 热度、题材和 T0 结构共振，是当前最均衡的可申购候选。 | -| 2 | `06715` | 鲟龙科技 | 6.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 63.7 | 防守质量不错，但 7.78x 热度不足，等待确认。 | -| 3 | `03952` | 来福谐波 | 6.2 / 中风险 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 61.8 | 结构强、热度中性；更像条件单，不是当前最高优先级。 | -| 4 | `09637` | 礼邦医药-B | 4.9 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 60.2 | 热度带来弹性，但 18A-B 破发尾部明显。 | -| 5 | `06915` | 江西生物 | 5.0 / 中风险 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 58.6 | 一手适中、基本面不差；需求冷导致上行不足。 | -| 6 | `00668` | 安克创新 | 6.6 / 中低风险 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 58.1 | 好公司但热度太冷；防守不等于短线收益。 | -| 7 | `02672` | 白鸽在线 | 4.1 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 54.3 | 热度尚可，基本面和结构不足。 | -| 8 | `02697` | 真健康医疗-B | 2.3 / 高风险 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 48.6 | 低资金占用不能抵消低热度和早期资产风险。 | +| 防守排序 | 股票 | 股票名 | 当前状态 | 参考破发概率 | 破发保护 | 资金效率 | 上行弹性 | 防守型分 | PM 判断 | +|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| 1 | `01191` | 海光芯正 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 68.8 | 热度、题材和 T0 结构共振，是当前最均衡的可申购候选。 | +| 2 | `03661` | 圣邦股份 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1；A/H 特殊定价 | 24.0% | 7.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 67.8 | 高质量盈利半导体资产，A/H 折价提供估值锚；仍要等 T1/T2 确认承接。 | +| 3 | `01688` | 领益智造 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1；A/H 特殊定价 | 26.2% | 7.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 67.5 | 成熟盈利和现金流降低尾部，但发行体量大、热度中性。 | +| 4 | `09630` | 芯碁微装 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 8.0 / 低风险 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 66.4 | 半导体设备和较强热度支撑防守，一手金额高拖累资金效率。 | +| 5 | `01956` | 中科闻歌 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 7.4 / 中低风险 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 66.4 | AI 题材和超 1000x 可执行热度给弹性，但一手资金占用高。 | +| 6 | `06106` | 仙工智能 | 已截止，等 T1/D1 | 24.0% | 6.5 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 65.5 | 旧热度很强但本轮仍缺官方 T1；在 D1 未确认前保留概率观察。 | +| 7 | `06715` | 鲟龙科技 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 63.7 | 防守质量不错，但 7.78x 热度不足，等待确认。 | +| 8 | `02272` | 科拓股份 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 36.7% | 5.8 / 中风险 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 62.8 | 热度强、资金效率好，但 T0 结构弱；不能因热度忽略破发概率。 | +| 9 | `03952` | 来福谐波 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.2 / 中风险 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 61.8 | 结构强、热度中性；更像条件单，不是当前最高优先级。 | +| 10 | `09637` | 礼邦医药-B | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 4.9 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 60.2 | 热度带来弹性，但 18A-B 破发尾部明显。 | +| 11 | `06915` | 江西生物 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 5.0 / 中风险 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 58.6 | 一手适中、基本面不差；需求冷导致上行不足。 | +| 12 | `00668` | 安克创新 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.6 / 中低风险 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 58.1 | 好公司但热度太冷；防守不等于短线收益。 | +| 13 | `02335` | 麦科医药-B | 已截止，等 T1/D1 | 24.0% | 4.4 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 56.0 | 18A-B 且缺官方 T1；旧热度只能保留为观察，不能替代最终需求。 | +| 14 | `02672` | 白鸽在线 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 4.1 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 54.3 | 热度尚可，基本面和结构不足。 | +| 15 | `06228` | MERDEKAGOLD-DRS | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 3.7 / 中高风险 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 52.1 | 一手低、容易中，但资源项目型资产和 2.37x 热度使防守质量偏弱。 | +| 16 | `02697` | 真健康医疗-B | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 36.7% | 2.3 / 高风险 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 48.6 | 低资金占用不能抵消低热度和早期资产风险。 | 退出纪律：本模型默认 T2 灰市有可靠可执行价格时优先卖出；否则 D1 卖出。D5/D20/D60 只用于复盘学习，不作为本次申购持有目标。若只有第三方历史灰市收益率，报告可用于复盘校准，但不能把它当作可执行报价。 diff --git a/reports/README.md b/reports/README.md index 9b66e0a..7b39dd1 100644 --- a/reports/README.md +++ b/reports/README.md @@ -41,18 +41,26 @@ 当前 `analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv` 有 312 行，其中 278 行有内部 D1 标签。全样本破发率约 27.7%，D1 平均收益约 +27.9%，中位数约 +7.0%。T0 分数 `>=8` 的样本破发率约 22.7%，T0 `<=4` 的破发率约 36.5%。发行规模 HK$50 亿以上样本破发率约 19.2%，低于 HK$10 亿样本约 30.5%。官方最终公开认购 `>=1000x` 样本破发率约 9.8%，但 `100x 至 1000x` 样本破发率约 32.9%，`10x 至 100x` 样本破发率约 44.4%。 -这些历史数值只用于校准。当前可申购候选还没有官方 T1，只有非官方 `T0_95_final_heat`，所以不能把 VBKR/Jieli 倍数直接当最终公开认购倍数。 +这些历史数值只用于校准。当前可申购候选还没有官方 T1，已截止但未上市/未确认 D1 的股票也没有破发或不破发结论，所以都必须保留概率视角。下表覆盖“当前可申购 + 已截止等 T1/T2/D1”的 D1 未确认全集；`06067`、`06132`、`01392` 已有 D1 结果，转入复盘区，不再放进预测概率表。 -| 防守排序 | 股票 | 股票名 | 破发保护 | 资金效率 | 上行弹性 | 防守型分 | PM 判断 | -|---:|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| -| 1 | `01191` | 海光芯正 | 6.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 68.8 | 热度、题材和 T0 结构共振，是当前最均衡的可申购候选。 | -| 2 | `06715` | 鲟龙科技 | 6.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 63.7 | 防守质量不错，但 7.78x 热度不足，等待确认。 | -| 3 | `03952` | 来福谐波 | 6.2 / 中风险 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 61.8 | 结构强、热度中性；更像条件单，不是当前最高优先级。 | -| 4 | `09637` | 礼邦医药-B | 4.9 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 60.2 | 热度带来弹性，但 18A-B 破发尾部明显。 | -| 5 | `06915` | 江西生物 | 5.0 / 中风险 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 58.6 | 一手适中、基本面不差；需求冷导致上行不足。 | -| 6 | `00668` | 安克创新 | 6.6 / 中低风险 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 58.1 | 好公司但热度太冷；防守不等于短线收益。 | -| 7 | `02672` | 白鸽在线 | 4.1 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 54.3 | 热度尚可，基本面和结构不足。 | -| 8 | `02697` | 真健康医疗-B | 2.3 / 高风险 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 48.6 | 低资金占用不能抵消低热度和早期资产风险。 | +| 防守排序 | 股票 | 股票名 | 当前状态 | 参考破发概率 | 破发保护 | 资金效率 | 上行弹性 | 防守型分 | PM 判断 | +|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| 1 | `01191` | 海光芯正 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 68.8 | 热度、题材和 T0 结构共振，是当前最均衡的可申购候选。 | +| 2 | `03661` | 圣邦股份 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1；A/H 特殊定价 | 24.0% | 7.8 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 67.8 | 高质量盈利半导体资产，A/H 折价提供估值锚；仍要等 T1/T2 确认承接。 | +| 3 | `01688` | 领益智造 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1；A/H 特殊定价 | 26.2% | 7.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 67.5 | 成熟盈利和现金流降低尾部，但发行体量大、热度中性。 | +| 4 | `09630` | 芯碁微装 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 8.0 / 低风险 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 66.4 | 半导体设备和较强热度支撑防守，一手金额高拖累资金效率。 | +| 5 | `01956` | 中科闻歌 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 7.4 / 中低风险 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 66.4 | AI 题材和超 1000x 可执行热度给弹性，但一手资金占用高。 | +| 6 | `06106` | 仙工智能 | 已截止，等 T1/D1 | 24.0% | 6.5 / 中低风险 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 65.5 | 旧热度很强但本轮仍缺官方 T1；在 D1 未确认前保留概率观察。 | +| 7 | `06715` | 鲟龙科技 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.7 / 中低风险 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 63.7 | 防守质量不错，但 7.78x 热度不足，等待确认。 | +| 8 | `02272` | 科拓股份 | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 36.7% | 5.8 / 中风险 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 62.8 | 热度强、资金效率好，但 T0 结构弱；不能因热度忽略破发概率。 | +| 9 | `03952` | 来福谐波 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.2 / 中风险 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 61.8 | 结构强、热度中性；更像条件单，不是当前最高优先级。 | +| 10 | `09637` | 礼邦医药-B | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 4.9 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 60.2 | 热度带来弹性，但 18A-B 破发尾部明显。 | +| 11 | `06915` | 江西生物 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 5.0 / 中风险 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 58.6 | 一手适中、基本面不差；需求冷导致上行不足。 | +| 12 | `00668` | 安克创新 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 24.0% | 6.6 / 中低风险 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 58.1 | 好公司但热度太冷；防守不等于短线收益。 | +| 13 | `02335` | 麦科医药-B | 已截止，等 T1/D1 | 24.0% | 4.4 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 56.0 | 18A-B 且缺官方 T1；旧热度只能保留为观察，不能替代最终需求。 | +| 14 | `02672` | 白鸽在线 | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 4.1 / 中高风险 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 54.3 | 热度尚可，基本面和结构不足。 | +| 15 | `06228` | MERDEKAGOLD-DRS | 已截止，等 T1/T2/D1 | 26.2% | 3.7 / 中高风险 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 52.1 | 一手低、容易中，但资源项目型资产和 2.37x 热度使防守质量偏弱。 | +| 16 | `02697` | 真健康医疗-B | 可申购，等 T1/T2/D1 | 36.7% | 2.3 / 高风险 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 48.6 | 低资金占用不能抵消低热度和早期资产风险。 | 退出纪律：本模型默认 T2 灰市有可靠可执行价格时优先卖出；否则 D1 卖出。D5/D20/D60 只用于复盘学习，不作为本次申购持有目标。若只有第三方历史灰市收益率，报告可用于复盘校准，但不能把它当作可执行报价。 diff --git a/scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh b/scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh index e4d6dd8..faf4204 100755 --- a/scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh +++ b/scripts/run_hk_ipo_analyst_once.sh @@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ Goals: - Keep unofficial subscription multiples in `ipo_market_heat` with their provider and `observed_at`; do not copy them into official T1 public oversubscription fields. - Rebuild the analysis dataset after any archive refresh. - Produce a complete latest broad IPO candidate report for actionable subscriptions, including ranking, fundamentals, break-risk/risk-reward, per-IPO notes, closed/waiting names, recent 30-day review, guardrails, and sources. +- In the break-risk/risk-reward/capital-efficiency section, include every current or recently closed ticker without confirmed D1 break/non-break information, even when its subscription has already closed and it is only waiting for T1/T2/D1. - Write the dated report as `reports/YYYY-MM-DD_latest_ipo_candidates_analysis.md`, then copy the same final content to `reports/README.md` so the reports directory opens on the latest report. - Keep stage discipline: no later facts leaking into earlier-stage conclusions. - Write analyst output in Simplified Chinese.