Clarify IPO short-exit strategy horizon
Request: - Emphasize that the analyst model is for selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not for long-term holding. Changes: - Add explicit T2/D1 sell discipline to the analyst skill. - Update ipo_score_v0 targets and holding policy so D1 sell return is primary and T2 is the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists. - Clarify that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not planned holding targets. - Update the model report, single-ticker report generator, README, and the 06106 report language to reflect the short-exit horizon. Verification: - Rebuilt the model report with the same dataset timestamp and confirmed the analysis dataset did not change. - Ran py_compile for build_analysis_dataset.py and generate_ipo_report.py. - Generated a 06106 dry-run report showing T2/D1 exit discipline. - Ran git diff --check. Next useful context: - T2 is still disabled in v0 until archivist approves a reliable grey-market data source; D1 remains the live modeled sell label.
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@@ -7,14 +7,27 @@ purpose: >
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Build the first transparent Hong Kong IPO subscription scoring model from
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archived project data. The model is a rules-plus-calibration baseline, not a
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black-box predictor. It separates T0 prospectus information from T1 allotment
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information so later facts do not leak into earlier decisions.
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information so later facts do not leak into earlier decisions. It is designed
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for short IPO subscription exits, not long-term holding.
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targets:
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primary: D1 return versus IPO offer price
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primary: D1 sell return versus IPO offer price
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secondary:
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- D5 return versus IPO offer price
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- D20 return versus IPO offer price
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- D60 return versus IPO offer price
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- T2 grey-market sell return versus IPO offer price, disabled until a reliable source exists
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- D1 strong-return probability
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holding_policy:
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intended_exit_window:
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- T2_grey_market when a reliable grey-market price is available
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- D1 otherwise
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default_assumption: sell allocated shares by D1
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non_targets:
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- D5 return
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- D20 return
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- D60 return
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note: >
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D5/D20/D60 outcomes are retained for review and error attribution only.
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They do not define the subscription model's target holding period.
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stage_policy:
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T0_prospectus:
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@@ -147,4 +160,4 @@ known_limitations:
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- T1 is structurally complete for listed rows, but some individual demand fields remain null when the archived source does not explicitly state them.
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- Industry labels and issuer fundamentals are not yet sufficiently structured for v0.
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- T2 grey-market signal is intentionally disabled until a reliable source exists.
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- Current D1 outcomes are from archived market data and should be reviewed for extreme corporate-action or data-vendor anomalies.
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- Current D1 sell-return outcomes are from archived market data and should be reviewed for extreme corporate-action or data-vendor anomalies.
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@@ -1,5 +1,29 @@
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# Rule Change Log
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## 2026-06-15 - Clarify short-exit IPO strategy horizon
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Request:
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- Emphasize that the analyst model is focused on selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not long-term holding.
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Change:
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- Added an explicit T2/D1 sell horizon to the analyst skill.
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- Updated `ipo_score_v0` targets and holding policy to make D1 sell return the primary modeled label and T2 the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists.
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- Clarified that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not holding-period targets.
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- Updated single-ticker reports and the report generator to show T2/D1 exit discipline.
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Rationale:
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- The subscription decision should optimize for immediate IPO exit execution, not a long-term equity thesis.
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- This preserves stage safety while aligning report language, model targets, and review labels with the actual trading process.
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Verification:
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- Generated dry-run single-ticker reports after the template update.
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- Rebuilt the analysis model report with the same dataset timestamp to refresh language without changing model rows.
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- Ran py_compile for the modified scripts and checked Markdown/report text for the new T2/D1 discipline.
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## 2026-06-15 - Refresh `ipo_score_v0` after T1 demand backfill
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Request:
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