Clarify IPO short-exit strategy horizon

Request:
- Emphasize that the analyst model is for selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not for long-term holding.

Changes:
- Add explicit T2/D1 sell discipline to the analyst skill.
- Update ipo_score_v0 targets and holding policy so D1 sell return is primary and T2 is the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists.
- Clarify that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not planned holding targets.
- Update the model report, single-ticker report generator, README, and the 06106 report language to reflect the short-exit horizon.

Verification:
- Rebuilt the model report with the same dataset timestamp and confirmed the analysis dataset did not change.
- Ran py_compile for build_analysis_dataset.py and generate_ipo_report.py.
- Generated a 06106 dry-run report showing T2/D1 exit discipline.
- Ran git diff --check.

Next useful context:
- T2 is still disabled in v0 until archivist approves a reliable grey-market data source; D1 remains the live modeled sell label.
This commit is contained in:
2026-06-15 14:20:56 +00:00
parent bd5a06465d
commit 29ed22e476
8 changed files with 96 additions and 34 deletions
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@@ -7,14 +7,27 @@ purpose: >
Build the first transparent Hong Kong IPO subscription scoring model from
archived project data. The model is a rules-plus-calibration baseline, not a
black-box predictor. It separates T0 prospectus information from T1 allotment
information so later facts do not leak into earlier decisions.
information so later facts do not leak into earlier decisions. It is designed
for short IPO subscription exits, not long-term holding.
targets:
primary: D1 return versus IPO offer price
primary: D1 sell return versus IPO offer price
secondary:
- D5 return versus IPO offer price
- D20 return versus IPO offer price
- D60 return versus IPO offer price
- T2 grey-market sell return versus IPO offer price, disabled until a reliable source exists
- D1 strong-return probability
holding_policy:
intended_exit_window:
- T2_grey_market when a reliable grey-market price is available
- D1 otherwise
default_assumption: sell allocated shares by D1
non_targets:
- D5 return
- D20 return
- D60 return
note: >
D5/D20/D60 outcomes are retained for review and error attribution only.
They do not define the subscription model's target holding period.
stage_policy:
T0_prospectus:
@@ -147,4 +160,4 @@ known_limitations:
- T1 is structurally complete for listed rows, but some individual demand fields remain null when the archived source does not explicitly state them.
- Industry labels and issuer fundamentals are not yet sufficiently structured for v0.
- T2 grey-market signal is intentionally disabled until a reliable source exists.
- Current D1 outcomes are from archived market data and should be reviewed for extreme corporate-action or data-vendor anomalies.
- Current D1 sell-return outcomes are from archived market data and should be reviewed for extreme corporate-action or data-vendor anomalies.
+24
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@@ -1,5 +1,29 @@
# Rule Change Log
## 2026-06-15 - Clarify short-exit IPO strategy horizon
Request:
- Emphasize that the analyst model is focused on selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not long-term holding.
Change:
- Added an explicit T2/D1 sell horizon to the analyst skill.
- Updated `ipo_score_v0` targets and holding policy to make D1 sell return the primary modeled label and T2 the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists.
- Clarified that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not holding-period targets.
- Updated single-ticker reports and the report generator to show T2/D1 exit discipline.
Rationale:
- The subscription decision should optimize for immediate IPO exit execution, not a long-term equity thesis.
- This preserves stage safety while aligning report language, model targets, and review labels with the actual trading process.
Verification:
- Generated dry-run single-ticker reports after the template update.
- Rebuilt the analysis model report with the same dataset timestamp to refresh language without changing model rows.
- Ran py_compile for the modified scripts and checked Markdown/report text for the new T2/D1 discipline.
## 2026-06-15 - Refresh `ipo_score_v0` after T1 demand backfill
Request: