Clarify IPO short-exit strategy horizon
Request: - Emphasize that the analyst model is for selling allocated IPO shares in T2 grey market or on D1, not for long-term holding. Changes: - Add explicit T2/D1 sell discipline to the analyst skill. - Update ipo_score_v0 targets and holding policy so D1 sell return is primary and T2 is the intended extension when reliable grey-market data exists. - Clarify that D5/D20/D60 are review labels only, not planned holding targets. - Update the model report, single-ticker report generator, README, and the 06106 report language to reflect the short-exit horizon. Verification: - Rebuilt the model report with the same dataset timestamp and confirmed the analysis dataset did not change. - Ran py_compile for build_analysis_dataset.py and generate_ipo_report.py. - Generated a 06106 dry-run report showing T2/D1 exit discipline. - Ran git diff --check. Next useful context: - T2 is still disabled in v0 until archivist approves a reliable grey-market data source; D1 remains the live modeled sell label.
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@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ The project is designed around a feedback loop:
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3. Compare predictions with post-listing outcomes.
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4. Improve the scoring rules only from reviewed evidence.
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The investment horizon is deliberately short. The subscription model is built for selling allocated shares in `T2_grey_market` when a reliable executable grey-market signal exists, or on `D1` otherwise. It is not a long-term holding model.
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## Goals
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- Maintain a local, Git-tracked history of Hong Kong IPO data.
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@@ -28,6 +30,8 @@ Each IPO is evaluated by stage:
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The key discipline is to avoid hindsight leakage. A T0 prediction should only use T0 information, even after the IPO has listed.
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The default exit discipline is T2/D1. D5/D20/D60 outcomes are kept to review whether the model missed later information, not to justify holding IPO allocations beyond the intended sell window.
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## Project Skills
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This repository includes project-local Codex skills under `.codex/skills/`.
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@@ -153,7 +157,7 @@ Use the analyst model builder to digest archived data into a stage-safe scoring
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The v0 model is documented in `rules/ipo_score_v0.yaml`. It writes `data/snapshots/analysis_model_v0_dataset.csv` and `reports/2026-06-15_analysis_model_v0.md`.
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The model separates T0 prospectus inputs from T1 allotment inputs. D1/D5/D20/D60 returns are labels for calibration and review, not prediction inputs.
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The model separates T0 prospectus inputs from T1 allotment inputs. Its live trading target is a T2 or D1 sale. D5/D20/D60 returns are labels for calibration and review, not prediction inputs or planned holding targets.
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## Single IPO Markdown Report
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@@ -166,7 +170,7 @@ Use the analyst report generator after the archive and model dataset are current
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The generator writes `reports/{date}_{ticker}_{stage}_analysis.md` by default. It auto-selects `T1_allotment` when structured allotment-demand facts exist; otherwise it generates a `T0_prospectus` report. Use `--stdout` for a dry run or `--output` to choose a specific Markdown path.
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Prediction reports are stage-safe: T0 reports use only prospectus-stage facts and T0 calibration, while T1 reports add allotment demand and T1 calibration. Post-listing D1/D5/D20/D60 performance stays out of prediction reports and is reserved for review cards.
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Prediction reports are stage-safe: T0 reports use only prospectus-stage facts and T0 calibration, while T1 reports add allotment demand and T1 calibration. Reports should frame the trade as a T2/D1 exit. Post-listing D5/D20/D60 performance stays out of prediction reports and is reserved for review cards.
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## Incremental Archive Sync
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