Add T0.5 market heat IPO analysis
Request: - Test whether subscription-period T0.5 market heat data can be captured and incorporated into IPO analysis. Changes: - Add an ipo_market_heat table for non-official market-heat snapshots. - Add a VBKR/Jieli archive script for expected margin subscription multiples. - Archive the 2026-06-15T18:40:00Z heat snapshot for 01392, 02335, 06067, 06106, and 06132. - Add an experimental T0.5 overlay rule file and a Chinese cross-IPO trial report. - Update archivist and analyst skills so T0.5 remains separate from official T1 allotment demand. Verification: - .venv/bin/python -m py_compile scripts/archive_t0_5_market_heat.py scripts/build_analysis_dataset.py scripts/update_sync_state.py - Python sqlite3 PRAGMA integrity_check returned ok and foreign_key_check returned zero rows. - Confirmed 5 ipo_market_heat rows and 5 t0_5_market_heat source_refs for the frozen snapshot. - git diff --cached --check Next useful context: - T0.5 data is non-official and should be resampled during the subscription window, then compared against T1 official allotment results.
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version: ipo_score_v0_5_market_heat_trial
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effective_date: 2026-06-15
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status: experimental_overlay
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owner_skill: analyst
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base_model: ipo_score_v0
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purpose: >
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Add a stage-safe T0.5 market-heat overlay to the transparent HK IPO
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subscription model. T0.5 uses non-official subscription-period market
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heat snapshots such as broker-aggregated margin subscription multiples.
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It is designed to update a T0 watchlist before official T1 allotment
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results are available.
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data_policy:
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stage: T0_5_market_heat
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allowed_inputs:
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- margin_subscription_multiple
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- provider
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- observed_at
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- subscription_deadline
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forbidden_inputs:
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- official_allotment_results
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- public_oversubscription_times_from_T1
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- international_oversubscription_times_from_T1
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- grey_market_result
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- post_listing_price_performance
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caveat: >
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T0.5 is a live, non-official signal. It must be stored with provider,
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observed_at timestamp, source URL, and raw snapshot path. Do not treat it
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as final HKEX allotment demand.
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score_components:
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T0_5_market_heat:
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margin_subscription_multiple:
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source: broker_or_market_data_snapshot
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points:
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missing: 0
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lt_10x: -3
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gte_10_lt_100x: 0
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gte_100_lt_1000x: 3
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gte_1000_lt_5000x: 6
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gte_5000x: 8
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decision_bands:
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T0_plus_T0_5:
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score_lt_5: weak_or_avoid
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score_5_to_7: wait_for_T1
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score_8_to_11: active_watch
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score_gte_12: high_heat_watch
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comparison_policy:
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- Compare raw margin multiples only among IPOs at a similar subscription lifecycle.
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- If close dates differ, explicitly note early-stage versus near-deadline bias.
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- Use T0.5 to upgrade or downgrade watchlist priority, not to replace T1 official demand.
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- Freeze every T0.5 snapshot so later T1/D1 reviews can test whether the live heat signal helped.
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